Cross-country comparison over absolute dates⮸

Confirmed⮸

Dead⮸

Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸

Active⮸

Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days⮸

Confirmed⮸

Dead⮸

Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸

Active⮸

Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis⮸

IMPORTANT: The projections are only accurate if the fit is good (it often isn't), and assuming nothing changes going forward. The sigmoid is omitted if a reasonable fit can't be computed, but this still doesn't mean that the fit is good if it is shown.

The dashed lines show best fit projections from a few previous days for comparison.

Croatia⮸

Population $4,105,267$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-28 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $105,691$ on 2020-11-23

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $1,398$ on 2020-11-23

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-28 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $19,275$ on 2020-11-23

Switzerland⮸

Population $8,654,622$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $300,352$ on 2020-11-23

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-05 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $4,222$ on 2020-11-23

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{2,156.7}{1 + 10^{-0.037 (t - 41.4)}}\) (asimptote \(2,156.7\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $89,430$ on 2020-11-23

Italy⮸

Population $60,461,826$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-22 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $1,431,795$ on 2020-11-23

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-02-24 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $50,453$ on 2020-11-23

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{36,468.8}{1 + 10^{-0.030 (t - 49.1)}}\) (asimptote \(36,468.8\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-23 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $796,849$ on 2020-11-23

US⮸

Population $331,002,651$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-07 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $12,416,039$ on 2020-11-23

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{15,512,522.1}{1 + 10^{-0.007 (t - 210.0)}}\) (asimptote \(15,512,522.1\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-12 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $257,671$ on 2020-11-23

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{247,082.5}{1 + 10^{-0.009 (t - 110.4)}}\) (asimptote \(247,082.5\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-07 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $7,524,768$ on 2020-11-23

United Kingdom⮸

Population $67,886,011$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $1,531,267$ on 2020-11-23

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-10 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $55,327$ on 2020-11-23

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{42,994.6}{1 + 10^{-0.030 (t - 48.0)}}\) (asimptote \(42,994.6\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $1,472,607$ on 2020-11-23

Sweden⮸

Population $10,099,265$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-28 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $208,295$ on 2020-11-23

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-12 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $6,406$ on 2020-11-23

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{5,865.5}{1 + 10^{-0.024 (t - 53.0)}}\) (asimptote \(5,865.5\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-28 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $201,889$ on 2020-11-23

Germany⮸

Population $83,783,942$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $946,822$ on 2020-11-23

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $14,460$ on 2020-11-23

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{9,687.8}{1 + 10^{-0.032 (t - 41.0)}}\) (asimptote \(9,687.8\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $301,987$ on 2020-11-23

Recovering countries that had over 300 active cases at peak⮸

List of all recovering countries (the top 4 not covered above are also analyzed below)⮸

Yemen recovered 93%
Qatar recovered 92%
Saudi Arabia recovered 91%
Iceland recovered 84%
El Salvador recovered 81%
Bahrain recovered 78%
Bolivia recovered 74%
Tajikistan recovered 72%
Nepal recovered 60%
Kuwait recovered 58%
Czechia recovered 56%
Cuba recovered 54%
Kyrgyzstan recovered 42%
Panama recovered 39%
Andorra recovered 37%
Switzerland recovered 36%
Togo recovered 30%
Armenia recovered 28%
Argentina recovered 23%
Slovakia recovered 16%
Iraq recovered 8%
Libya recovered 3%

Yemen⮸

Population $29,825,964$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-05-08 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $2,107$ on 2020-11-23

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{2,039.1}{1 + 10^{-0.024 (t - 50.2)}}\) (asimptote \(2,039.1\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-05-05 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $609$ on 2020-11-23

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{591.4}{1 + 10^{-0.025 (t - 56.7)}}\) (asimptote \(591.4\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-05-10 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $39$ on 2020-11-23

Qatar⮸

Population $2,881,053$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $137,415$ on 2020-11-23

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{126,064.3}{1 + 10^{-0.021 (t - 99.0)}}\) (asimptote \(126,064.3\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-28 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $236$ on 2020-11-23

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{223.0}{1 + 10^{-0.019 (t - 96.2)}}\) (asimptote \(223.0\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $2,693$ on 2020-11-23

Saudi Arabia⮸

Population $34,813,871$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-12 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $355,489$ on 2020-11-23

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{343,323.8}{1 + 10^{-0.018 (t - 107.3)}}\) (asimptote \(343,323.8\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-28 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $5,796$ on 2020-11-23

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{5,713.4}{1 + 10^{-0.013 (t - 128.6)}}\) (asimptote \(5,713.4\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-12 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $5,877$ on 2020-11-23

Iceland⮸

Population $341,243$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-28 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $5,289$ on 2020-11-23

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-15 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $26$ on 2020-11-23

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{11.5}{1 + 10^{-0.045 (t - 25.4)}}\) (asimptote \(11.5\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-28 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $198$ on 2020-11-23